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Last Look - Oil prices rise, but post weekly loss on tariffs and OPEC+ production plans
SituationWith demand decimated by COVID-19, jet fuel prices declined over 46% between January and March 2020. In response to the price decrease, a fixed-base operator (FBO) wanted to lock in the historically low jet fuel prices for as long as possible, enabling the company to mitigate commercial risk during uncertain times. The FBO had planned to purchase over 4.5 million gallons of Gulf Coast Jet A fuel over the next 18 months but needed a creative way to lock in the prices. The FBO lacked a clear perspective on the forward markets and the drivers impacting jet fuel pricing. The company also had little familiarity with hedging nor the counterparty relationships it required. |  |
SolutionAEGIS partnered with the FBO to explain the forward markets, hedge structures, and likely counterparties that could enable a comprehensive approach for capping their jet fuel price exposures. A dedicated AEGIS trader was assigned to define the company’s goals, potential risk tolerances, and tailor a clear hedge strategy. AEGIS identified and introduced counterparties and assessed market liquidity for various structures. With the FBO’s approval, AEGIS worked with the counterparties to cap 75% of its forecasted volume for 18 months. |
OutcomeWith AEGIS’ assistance, the FBO purchased call options at a strike price of 89.5¢/gal for the next 18 months. As prices increased to meet returning demand, proceeds would accrue to the FBO, offsetting the rising jet fuel prices. If prices went sideways or lower, the FBO would have been exposed and at risk for the upfront premium. In the initial months of the hedge program, jet fuel prices rose over 30% and were forecasted to rise another 70% through the term of the hedges. However, the FBO effectively avoided these increases as a result of the hedges put in place by AEGIS. While the past (and continuing) performance of this hedge is not indicative of the future results of this or any hedge program, it met the needs of the client in managing their risk. With AEGIS’ hedging expertise, the FBO was able to make fast, sophisticated decisions that minimized the company’s exposure to rising jet fuel prices and gave it the flexibility to pass these savings on to customers in an effort to improve competitive positioning or lock-in margins as the economy recovered. This was all accomplished at a fraction of the time and cost that would have been incurred with an in-house hedge program. |
“We knew there was an opportunity for us to capitalize when the market dropped. AEGIS provided professional guidance in an unprecedented time that allowed us to make a fast and calculated hedge decision on our jet fuel price and volume. Within a month, we saw returns. I could not have asked for more. Working with AEGIS was too easy.” |
CFO | Fixed-Base Operator