Let's look at weather first. Temperatures in the U.S. between June 6 to June 16 were much above-average. The chart below shows the cumulative cooling degree days (CDDs) for this period in June. As a refresher, a CDD is the number of degrees that a day’s average temperature is above 65 °F. By one measure, there were 120 total CDDs between June 6-16 in 2021, compared to the normal 90 over the past five years. As the chart below shows, 2021 was unseasonably hot compared to other years; therefore, the total generation for electricity was some 30 GW higher on average than the 2016-2020 average. |
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Natural gas could participate in the overall increase in total generation much more than usual due to unplanned outages throughout the power stack. Out west, hydropower generation has been far below normal due to the recent drought and below-average snowpack melt. Nuclear generation capacity was reduced in June as well. An important facility to Texas and the state’s regulator was down in north Texas at a reduction of 1.2 GW. Lastly, wind power was lower than normal during this period. Many of these elements are shown in chart form below. These unplanned outages are considered the “bottom of the stack,” or power generation that is first to be dispatched. What remains after renewables and nuclear is the so-called "thermal" load, because it is filled almost entirely by burning natural gas and coal. Gas-powered power plants were able reach record amounts of burn for the period between June 6 to June 16 due to these “bottom of the stack” outages combined with above-average temperatures. Thus, the overperformance in natural gas generation can be seen as more of an anomaly than a new development in the power stack. Looking ahead to the rest of summer, we believe natural gas demand for electricity will be on the upper end of historical norms and will overperform relative to other power sources, however, high gas prices and assumed normalization of non-thermal power sources might make it difficult for gas-fired power generation to reach record levels again this summer. Below we will run through each section of the power stack to dissect what factors allowed for a higher degree of natural gas burn. |
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Power Stack Highlights |
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