Oil is trading higher, around $73, after a $2 rally yesterday
Yesterday, it was reported that a 300 MBbl/d oil field in Libya was shut down due to protests, as well as continued geopolitical risk in the Middle East
The API estimates a draw of 7.4 MMBbls from US inventories, with official EIA data being released later today
Robust supply has some seeing tough year for oil prices (BBG)
Rising oil output from non-OPEC+ countries could outstrip global demand growth in 2024, with some market participants skeptical that OPEC’s production cuts will sufficiently tighten the market
Commodity trading fund Northern Trace Capital said they see 2024 as potentially risky for oil prices, with the market relying heavily on OPEC+ for support, and that a collapse in the group's agreement to curb supply could send oil prices significantly lower
According to the CFTC's report on trader positioning, speculators have their lowest net-long position in more than ten years, signaling increased bearish sentiment
India’s imports of Russian oil become more costly (BBG)
Government data shows a significantly reduced discount of Russian oil imported into India in November, with prices at the highest level in a year
Refiners paid an average of $85.90/Bbl for Russian oil, up 1.8% from October
Crude imports from Iraq averaged $85.70, and imports from Saudi Arabia averaged $93.30
The smaller discount has led buyers to seek alternative crude grades from the Middle East
Natural gas prices extend rally into a third day amid forecasted frigid conditions into mid-January
February ’24 Henry Hub gained 17.9c this morning to trade around $2.847/MMBtu
The Winter ‘23/’24 strip is up 13.1c to $2.703, and the Summer ’24 strip is up 7.1c to $2.750
The weather model indicates a cooler temperature shift in the Eastern regions and a warming trend in the Rockies and West, with an overall 6.7o F drop in the Lower 48 in the 11-15 day period
Lower-48 gas production saw a net decrease of 0.56 Bcf/d yesterday and an additional drop of 0.15 Bcf/d in the morning flows, primarily in the Northeast and Rockies (Criterion)
The modeled Lower 48 gas production fell to 102 Bcf/d, marking a decline of 1.76 Bcf/d since year-end 2023, with notable declines in Appalachia, particularly on EQT, TCO, REX, and TGP
US was the top LNG exporter in 2023, achieving record levels (Reuters)
The US became the largest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Qatar and Australia with a record monthly and annual export volume in December
US LNG exports increased by 14.7% in 2023 to 88.9 million metric tons, mainly due to full production resumption at Freeport LNG and higher output from the Calcasieu Pass facility
In December, Europe was the primary destination for U.S. LNG, receiving over 61% of exports, although demand fell due to warmer temperatures and high storage levels
Feed gas flows to U.S. LNG export terminals averaged 14.9 Bcf/d in early January, up from a monthly record of 14.7 Bcf/d in December
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