Oil is up slightly to $76.75 after falling more than $1 yesterday
Last night, Israel struck targets belonging to Hezbollah in Lebanon as conflict in the Middle East continues
Iraq and Kazahkstan stated they have failed to fully cut production below promised levels
IEA sees oil market in surplus this year (BBG)
The latest report by the International Energy Agency shows global oil demand increasing by 1.2 MMBbl/d in 2024, about half the growth rate of 2023
Meanwhile, supply growth from non-OPEC countries is expected to come in at 1.6 MMBbl/d
The IEA's view on oil balances continues to differ from the view of OPEC, which sees global oil markets in a deficit for 2024
The IEA noted that the market was in a deficit last month due to winter storms shutting output in North America but expects the effects to be short-lived
Refining growth to be led by the Middle East, China, and Africa in 2024 (EIA)
The Middle East will add 630 MBbl/d as the Kuwait Al Zour refinery reaches total capacity
China’s refining capacity is expected to increase by 340 MBbl/d despite closures in Shandong
Africa’s capacity will grow by 260 MBbl/d as the Dangote refinery continues to start-up
Natural gas prices recovered modestly as overnight weather models were seen shifting somewhat cooler
March ’24 Henry Hub is up 4.2c this morning to trade around $1.651/MMBtu
The Summer ’24 strip is up 2.7c to $2.077, and the Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 2.5c to $3.247
Today's Euro Ens shows a modest 0.4°F rise in the Lower 48 due to warming in the Northeast/Southeast offsetting cooler temperatures, indicating a continued warm pattern into March
Lower 48 natural gas production remains flat at around 104.1 Bcf/d, with the South gaining 0.1 Bcf/d and minor decreases in the Northeast and Gulf (Criterion)
EQT not ready for further production cuts, eyes natural gas market rebound (NGI)
CFO Jeremy Knop cited a data vendor's lowered supply estimates, implying the market is not as oversupplied as most think
EQT, the nation's largest gas producer, produced over 2 Tcfe last year and expects to guide 2.2-2.3 Tcfe this year
Knop mentioned that if production remains steady and weather follows usual patterns through the injection season, gas inventories by the end of summer could match the five-year average
He noted that EQT, responding to market demands for lower production, has already reduced its activity, with Appalachian production decreasing by 1.5 Bcf/d since December, and anticipates further declines
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