AEGIS Hedging : February 29, 2024

Oil is trading around $78.60 after falling more than 30c yesterday
- The Brent prompt spread has climbed, reaching the highest level since October
Sanctions denting Russian oil trade to India (BBG)
- Increased enforcement of US sanctions on Russian oil has forced some Indian refiners to look elsewhere for cargo
- Russia is still the county’s primary supplier, but shipments from Saudi Arabia have jumped 22% this month compared to January
- According to a refinery executive and a government official, Russia has been seeking payment in Yuan due to higher scrutiny by banks over trade in Dirhams
- More Russian crude has been shipped to China as exports to India have fallen
Oil prices expected to remain near $80 (Reuters)
- A Reuters survey of analysts and economists found that the median expectation is for Brent prices to average $81.13/Bbl in 2024, with WTI expected to average $76.54/Bbl
- This is lower than last month's survey, which showed an expectation for WTI to average $77.26/Bbl

Natural gas prices trade modestly lower ahead of storage data amid a mild March outlook
- April ’24 Henry Hub is down 2.7c this morning to trade around $1.858/MMBtu
- The Summer ’24 strip is down 0.7c to $2.361, and the Winter ‘24/’25 strip is down 0.9c to $3.421
- Today's Euro Ens indicates widespread cooling across nearly every region, maintaining the overall Lower 48 pattern, with next week expected to be the warmest since early winter
- Lower 48 natural gas production rose by 0.14 Bcf/d overnight but fell sharply today by 0.84 Bcf/d to 100.86 Bcf/d, reaching a new winter low, with significant drops in the South Central and Appalachia (Criterion)
Sempra delays FID on Cameron LNG to 2025 amid US regulatory uncertainty (S&P)
- Sempra Infrastructure postpones FID for Cameron LNG and Port Arthur expansions amid permit uncertainties
- Cameron LNG terminal's fourth train expansion is now targeted for 1H 2025, diverging from the original 2024 goal to cut costs with CEO Bird expecting an FID
- Whereas, the Port Arthur LNG project's phase two expansion lacks a clear timeline after the recent DOE freeze on permits, despite its potential to double the initial project's capacity by 13.5 Mtpa
- The permits at issue for US LNG exports to non-Free Trade Agreement countries are suspended until the DOE updates its impact assessments, with the pause expected to last at least through the November presidential election

February 29, 2024