Oil is trading slightly higher, around $82.80, extending gains from yesterday
WTI and Brent December-December spreads are the highest in several months, with prompt spreads also climbing
Open interest in Brent is the highest since October 2021
Implied volatility in the options market has fallen, with Brent’s put skew now being the least bearish since November
India buys more US oil as sanctions hit Russian flows (BBG)
Indian refiners are on track to import the most US crude in nearly a year after increased enforcement of Russian sanctions has forced buyers to look elsewhere for supply
Major refiners in India have purchased about 7 MMBbls of US crude for April loading so far this month
However, Russia remains the largest crude supplier to India and has been since the start of sanctions on Russia
JPM says drone attacks have taken 900 MBbl//d of Russian capacity offline (BBG)
In 2024, there have been 23 drone attacks on Russian refineries, terminals, and depots
The refining capacity is expected to remain offline for “several weeks, if not months”
The Ukrainian drone attacks have added about $4 of risk premium to crude prices
The lower refinery utilization may lead to higher crude exports from Russia
Chinese mega-refinery buys crude in advance of startup (BBG)
Chinese refiner Shandong Yulong has purchased crude in preparation for the startup of its new 400 MBbl/d refinery
The company purchased Oman and Russian ESPO crudes for April and May delivery
The refinery is preparing to begin testing units by the end of the second quarter
Production weakness and cooler weather outlook prompt natural gas prices to trade higher
April ’24 Henry Hub is up 4.6c this morning to trade around $1.749/MMBtu
The Summer ’24 strip is up 1.8c to $2.260, and the Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 1.2c to $3.440
Today's Euro Ensemble forecasts colder weather across nearly all regions, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, but forecasts a moderate warming trend in the 11-15 day period
Lower 48 gas production remains below 100 Bcf/d, signaling potential volatility as maintenance season begins (Criterion)
Tellurian considers sale to advance Driftwood LNG project (S&P)
Tellurian explores strategic options, including a potential company sale, to progress its Driftwood LNG project, aiming to bolster financial footing as per a March 18 US regulatory filing
Broader options beyond Tellurian's initial plan to sell Haynesville Shale assets are assessed, exploring debt/equity financing, partnerships, and stake sales in Driftwood
Amidst executive shifts, including CEO Octavio Simoes' resignation, Tellurian faces hurdles in securing support for Driftwood, targeted to produce 27.6 mtpa at full capacity
Despite starting construction without firm LNG contracts, the company sets an ambitious FID timeline for Driftwood's first 11 mtpa phase by late 2024
LNG market tight until 2026, says TotalEnergies (Argus)
TotalEnergies expects the global LNG market to remain tight until 2026 due to a lack of new plant startups, as stated by CEO Patrick Pouyanne at the CERAWeek conference in Houston
He added that the LNG market is expected to ease after 2026, with multiple new plants coming online, potentially benefiting buyers during 2027-2029
The company plans to enhance its LNG strategy by integrating more upstream gas production, particularly in Texas' Eagle Ford, leveraging what is considered the "cheapest gas on the planet"
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