Oil is trading higher, snapping a three-day losing streak
Speculators increased their net-long position in Brent to the highest level in a year and the highest in five months for WTI, according to CFTC data through last Tuesday
OPEC+ delegates unlikely to propose policy changes next week (BBG)
OPEC+ delegates see no need to recommend changes to the current OPEC policy, as they believe current output quotas are proving effective
Next week’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting will focus more on individual member's compliance with the output cuts, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan who have been producing more than their quota
The latest production cuts from OPEC amount to a 2 MMBbl/d reduction in supply through June, although it is possible the cuts get extended through the end of the year
Sanctions impacting Russian crude flows (BBG)
Indian oil refiners, Russia’s second-largest crude buyer, will no longer be accepting tankers operated by Russia’s state-owned Sovcomflot due to the risk posed by sanctions
The US strengthened sanctions enforcement late last year and began sanctioning individual ships, leading to a tighter market for tankers that are able to transport Russian oil
Natural gas prices moved lower in Monday AM trading as weather models turned warmer
The April contract traded 4c lower to 1.61/MMBbtu on the warmer pattern
Before this weekend’s shift warmer, April was projected to be the 5th warmest in the 2000s in terms of gas-weighted heating degree days (CWG)
Dry gas production continues to edge lower in response to low gas prices
Lower 48 supply was modeled just under 100 Bcf/d over the weekend, according to Criterion Research
Production has been on the decline since early February, where supply was measured near 105 Bcf/d
AEGIS notes that gas prices are still signaling trouble and the need for supply reductions. With the storage surplus at an eye-popping 678 Bcf above the five-year average, it may take a while to work off the excess as lower supply tightens the daily supply-demand balance.
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