Oil prices are mostly unchanged after rallying above $83 last week
So far in 2024, WTI prices have rallied more than 16% to the highest levels since November 2023
US crude replacing some OPEC+ supplies (BBG)
Markets normally supplied by OPEC+ crudes have seen higher imports of US oil due to sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan crude
US oil exports have set five new monthly records since the start of sanctions on Russia in 2022
US crude is now beginning to replace Russian oil purchased by India, as the country has found it difficult to work around the latest sanctions enforcement
While US supplies cannot fully replace Russian crude due to a difference in quality and shipping time, there has been a shift toward US grades
European demand remains strong (BBG)
Goldman Sachs recently said in a note that they see oil demand in Europe supporting prices as consumption this year has risen 100 MBbl/d year-over-year
This compares to the bank's earlier forecast that demand would fall by 300 MBbl/d in February and 200 MBbl/d over the course of the year
Goldman sees softness in US supply growth, adding $5 to oil prices, OPEC cuts adding $7, and weak Chinese demand having a $-7 effect
Natural gas prices trade higher after the weather outlook over the long weekend signals some late-season cold temperatures
May ’24 Henry Hub is up 4.7c this morning to trade around $1.81/MMBtu
The Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 0.3c to $3.382, and the Summer ’25 strip is up 1.2c to $3.301
Today's Euro Ensemble forecasts a widespread drop in temperatures, notably a 6.7o F decrease over the next 6-10 days, with recovery expected by Sunday towards the 10-year normal next week
Natural gas production in the Lower 48 declined to 97.54 Bcf/d on April 1, largely due to decreases in the South-Central area (Criterion)
Concurrently, NGPL began hydrotesting, affecting Eastbound flow at CS 302 to 0.9 Bcf/d and is expected to further reduce capacity, with the testing scheduled to run through May 28
Asian LNG imports surge to record in March on lower prices, led by China and India (Bloomberg)
Asian LNG imports rose by 12% year-on-year to approximately 24 million tons in March, driven by countries including China, India, and Thailand, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler
JKM futures averaged near $8.94/MMBtu in March, while TTF futures averaged around $8.57
The rise in Asian LNG imports is expected to continue, reducing shipments to Europe, where inventories are currently at a seasonal high
European LNG imports in March fell 20% year-on-year to the lowest level since September, following a surge in purchases post the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict to decrease dependency on Russian gas
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