AEGIS Hedging : April 12, 2024

Oil is trading sharply higher, with prices now above $87
- This move comes despite the US Dollar trading higher and equities trading lower
- Israel is anticipating an attack by Iran or Iranian proxies, which is leading to an increase in geopolitical risk premium in crude prices
IEA predicts slower oil demand growth this year and next (BBG)
- The IEA cut its oil demand forecast for this year and is estimating even slower growth for 2025, driven by a weaker economic outlook and rising adoption of EVs
- The group’s first forecast for 2025 predicts demand growth of 1.1 MMBbl/d, compared to its 2024 expectation of 1.2 MMBbl/d of growth
- This view is in opposition to the OPEC forecast, which shows substantially stronger demand growth

Natural gas heads for a weekly loss amid storage surplus as the market waits for summer cooling demand
- May ’24 Henry Hub is down 1c this morning to trade around $1.754/MMBtu
- The Summer ’24 strip is down 0.2c to $2.244 and Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 0.5c to $3.398
- Today's Euro Ensemble indicates a colder shift east of the Rockies and warmer conditions in the West for the end of April
Energy Transfer bid to block DT Midstream’s pipeline overturned on appeal (NGI)
- A Louisiana appeals court ruled Energy Transfer’s property rights for the ETC Tiger Pipeline don't prevent DT Midstream from building natural gas pipeline crossings, stating rights don't extend to "the center of the earth"
- DT Midstream proceeds with an alternative route for its LEAP project, planning to recover costs from Energy Transfer. LEAP's capacity reached 1.7 Bcf/d, with plans to expand to 1.9 Bcf/d by end of Q3
- The decision aids Williams and Momentum Midstream in their legal battles with Energy Transfer, enabling Williams to advance its 1.8 Bcf/d LEG system, now rescheduled for early 2025, while Momentum's 1.7 Bcf/d NG3 project awaits a trial set for September

April 12, 2024