- Oil is trading lower after Iranian attack on Israel
- Over the weekend, Iran launched numerous drones and missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted
- Citi boosts oil price forecast (BBG)
- Citi’s base case is for tensions in the Middle East to remain extremely high while also saying that the impact of the tensions in the Middle East has had a larger-than-expected effect on price
- The bank has increased its three-month price forecast from $75/Bbl to $83/Bbl, and its Q2 forecast from $74/Bbl to $82/Bbl
- Citi added that a de-escalation of conflict could see prices fall to the high $70s while an intensification of conflict could see prices move toward $100/Bbl on the risk of disrupted supply
- Kazakhstan is still overproducing (BBG)
- OPEC member Kazakhstan said it produced more than its quota in March, with production coming in 131 MBbl/d higher than its committed amount
- Overproduction by OPEC members Iraq and Kazakhstan is a bearish risk for crude prices
