- Oil is lower, near $81.40, as prices continue to sell off
- WTI prices are down more than 7% or nearly $7/Bbl from its recent peak at the start of the month
- Market participants expect sanctions to have a muted impact on Iranian exports (BBG)
- Legislation pushed by the Biden administration to widen the scope of sanctions on Iran is expected to become law as early as next week, but many market observers do not expect strong enforcement
- The White House may be hesitant to implement policies that could lead to higher prices in energy ahead of the 2024 election in November
- A managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, a Washington-based research firm, said, “Oil traders are nonchalant because they know Biden will certainly sign whatever waivers are necessary to keep Iranian oil flowing into the market just as he has done with Russian barrels flowing into the market”
- Clearview Energy Partners see the sanctions adding an $8.40/Bbl premium to oil prices if they are fully implemented and enforced
- Russian crude exports remain high as refineries recover from attacks (BBG)
- Seaborne crude exports from Russia have maintained a multi-month high as the country’s refineries struggle to bring capacity back online following Ukrainian drone attacks
- Refinery throughput is the lowest since last year, encouraging higher exports
