First Look: Natural gas prices head for a third straight weekly loss amid swelling storage surplus
April 26, 2024
Oil is trading higher and heading for the first weekly gain in two weeks
US inflation data came in higher than expected, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged
This has led to the US dollar trading higher
Asian refiners reducing throughput on weak diesel market (BBG)
A sharp drop in diesel refining margins driven by weak diesel prices and demand has forced some refiners in Asia to cut their output
The scale of the reductions is relatively small, but if margins do not improve, other refiners may be forced to reduce output as well
Refiners have already been struggling with higher crude costs and geopolitical risks
This could be a bearish factor for oil prices if margins do not improve
Natural gas prices head for a third straight weekly loss amid swelling storage surplus and mild weather outlook
May ’24 Henry Hub is down 10.7c this morning to trade around $1.531/MMBtu
The Summer ’24 strip is down 5.5c to $2.192 and Winter ‘24/’25 strip is down 1.9c to $3.429
Today's Euro Ensemble indicates net cooling of -5o F across most of the Lower 48, despite a warmer West, with temperatures approaching the 10-year average and expected to warm next week before moderating
Yesterday, the EIA reported a higher-than-expected 92 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending April 19, increasing the surplus to 655 Bcf above the five-year average
Antero raises 2024 guidance, highlights AI/data center demand growth (Criterion)
Antero reported 1Q24 net production of 3.43 Bcfe/d, up slightly from 3.42 Bcfe/d in 4Q; growth attributed to a 15 MBbl/d increase in ethane volumes to 74.3 MBbl/d, while natural gas production fell by 2.8% to 2.22 Bcf/d
Production guidance for 2024 was increased by 25 MMcf/d to 3.35-3.40 Bcfe/d, driven by higher-than-expected liquids volumes; annual gas production projected at 2.16 Bcf/d
Antero expects significant natural gas demand growth through 2030, mainly from AI/data centers, crypto, and EV/Hybrids; expected to surge over 150% from 5.1 Bcf/d in 2023 to 12.8 Bcf/d by 2030
Projected demand growth is also supported by robust increases in LNG feed gas and Mexican exports, potentially doubling combined demand by 2030
Gulfstream LNG seeks to start an early FERC review of Louisiana LNG export project (S&P Global)
Gulfstream LNG has initiated a request for early review by the FERC for a new 4 MTPA LNG export project in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana
The proposed project would include three LNG trains with a total capacity of 4.2 MTPA, one LNG storage tank, two marine loading berths, one power generation unit, and associated gas processing facilities
Gulfstream LNG plans to file a full Natural Gas Act Section 3 application by September, targeting FERC approval by March 2027 and service commencement in January 2030
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