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First Look - Speculator's bullish positions in ICE Brent surge

Oil prices are lower to start the week, extending some losses from Friday
- WTI prices remain up nearly $5 over the past two weeks
- Over the weekend, a ship was struck by a Houthi-launched missile in the Red Sea, as tensions in the Middle East continue to lead to increased risk premium in crude prices
Speculators increase bullish bets on crude oil (BBG)
- Traders have increased their net long position in ICE Brent and European diesel futures, with significant weekly increases in both
- Managed money participants registered the largest-ever weekly gain in net bullish positions on European diesel
- The same gauge for ICE Brent futures and options also rose the most since October, increasing by about 68k contracts
- These moves come after crude has posted a substantial gain in the past two weeks and marks a reversal from an increase in bearish positions after the OPEC meeting

Natural gas prices were nearly unchanged ($2.68) in early Monday morning trading (8:17 AM CST) from Friday’s $2.69 settle
- The nominal change is surprising, given the loss of about 10 Bcf of demand from weekend changes in the weather forecast
- Lower 48 dry gas production hovered near 100 Bcf/d over the weekend. At 100 Bcf/d, gas is up 3 Bcf/d from the April lows but over 5 Bcf/d lower than year-to-date highs
The Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) received more than 500 MMcf/d over the weekend (Criterion)
- The receipts are split between flows from Equitrans and Great Hammerhead
- Gas entered the Transco mainline at the Cherrystone meter, measuring between 548 and 555 MMcf/d over the weekend
- Local basis in the region has improved in the nearby contracts, with Eastern Gas South basis (fka Dom South) trading near -$0.70 for July on the backs of more bullish weather and MVP’s in-service