Market Insights > First Look

First Look - Angola's oil exports reach a four-year high

Oil is trading higher after reaching a two-month high overnight
- WTI is heading for a third consecutive weekly gain, with prices up more than $6.50/Bbl since the week of June 14
- Tensions in the Middle East have escalated as Israel has moved military assets to the border of Lebanon, while the Houthis have increasingly launched attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea
Angola’s exports rise following OPEC departure (BBG)
- Angola is on track to export the most oil in nearly four years, following the country’s departure from OPEC last year
- Shipments will climb to 1.23 MMBbl/d, compared to their quota of 1.1 MMBbl/d under OPEC
- The producers in Angola’s oil fields have invested heavily in expansion and reservoir management to counter dwindling production

Natural gas pared early morning gains to trade nearly flat at $2.69/MMbtu by 8:00 a.m central
- The August gas contract is down 51c since June 11
- This coming winter strip (Winter ’24-’25) is also down substantially for the same time period, down about 30c to $3.51
- AEGIS continues to have a downside bias on this coming winter as we believe inventories will still be high as the market enters winter
The EIA reported a 52 Bcf storage build for the week ended Jun 21
- The 52 Bcf build was three Bcf more than the AEGIS expected 49 bcf
- The average analyst estimate on Bloomberg was 53 Bcf
- Inventories for the US are now at a surplus of 561 Bcf to the five-year average
- AEGIS notes that even with production down around 100 Bcf/d, the reduction in surplus will take some time
  - Widespread heat is helping reduce the large surplus to the five-year average, but anomalous warmth will need to continue to make rapid reductions in the excess inventories this summer