Market Insights > First Look

First Look - Global oil demand growth slowed in the second quarter

Oil is higher this morning, extending some gains from yesterday
- Volatility in crude oil has fallen, with the WTI second-month implied volatility falling to the lowest level since 2018
- The NYMEX gasoline crack spread is at the lowest level since early May, potentially signaling weaker domestic crude demand
Global oil demand growth slowed last quarter, driven by China (BBG)
- According to the IEA, global oil demand growth fell to its lowest level in more than a year last quarter as the post-pandemic rebound in China fades
- Global consumption rose by only 710 MBbl/d in the second quarter, the smallest gain since late 2022
- The IEA outlook on the future of oil demand growth contrasts with OPEC, with the IEA forecasting oil demand to peak this decade rather than continually rising toward 2050, as seen by OPEC

Natural gas prices moved lower Thursday morning, trading down 4.3c to $2.28/MMbtu (8:14 am)
- The August gas contract is flirting close to the lowest traded price for that contract (Aug ’24)
- The Winter ’24-’25 strip is also lower at $3.25 but still well off its all-time low of $2.53 set back in 2020
- Houston still has about 1.3 million people without power following Hurricane Beryl – as of July 10
The Freeport LNG terminal remains offline, with minimal gas entering the facility
- Power remains out at the terminal as Freeport LNG awaits restoration from provider Centerpoint
- With the 2 Bcf/d Freeport terminal down, total US LNG nominations have sank to about 11 Bcf/d from a seasonal potential of just 13 Bcf/d