Market Insights > First Look

First Look - OPEC delegates see no change to supply plan

Oil is lower, around $82.78, after jumping more than $2 yesterday (As of 8:20AM)
- EIA data released yesterday showed US crude storage declining for a third consecutive week and falling to the lowest level since February
- In Canada, wildfires are again threatening oil sands production
- WTI’s discount to Brent is currently the smallest since last October
OPEC delegates see no change to supply plan (BBG)
- The next OPEC+ monitoring meeting next month is expected to end without any changes to the group’s plan to gradually bring 2.2 MMBbl/d of supply back to the market starting in October
- Rystad Energy said, “OPEC+ will likely wait and see if the much-anticipated demand increase this summer materializes before taking any decision on production”
- If demand fails to materialize as expected, OPEC countries may be unable to bring their voluntary production cuts back without leading to oversupplied market conditions

Natural gas prices trade cautiously higher after yesterday’s 15c, or 7% slump as the market awaits EIA’s weekly storage report
- Prompt gas was 3.7c higher to $2.072/MMBtu (As of 8:13 AM)
- The Summer ’24 strip is up 2.9c to $2.141 and Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 2.7c to $3.186
- The European Ensemble shifted colder by a net of –4.3 F today across most regions, except for the South Central, and while there is some potential for heat in late July/early August, it is not expected to be as intense as the current heatwave (Criterion)
FERC ordered to review Commonwealth LNG's carbon emissions impact (NGI)
- A federal appeals court has mandated FERC to re-examine the environmental impact of the 9.3 mmty Commonwealth LNG, potentially delaying the Louisiana export project
- The court ruled that FERC failed to adequately explain its decision on the project's GHG emissions and cumulative effects of nitrogen dioxide
- Commonwealth LNG's approval for construction has been in place since 2022, but regulatory uncertainties and a U.S. DOE policy review have caused delays
- Despite these setbacks, Commonwealth aims for a final investment decision by mid-2025, with initial LNG exports projected for 2028