Market Insights > First Look

First Look - Oil heads for a third weekly decline amid hopes of Gaza ceasefire and demand concerns

Oil is trading lower and heading for a third weekly decline
- Ceasefire talks are continuing between Israel and Hamas, pressuring crude prices by potentially reducing the geopolitical risk premium
- Wildfires in Alberta have prompted evacuations and pose a threat to crude production in the province
Iranian crude continues to flow to China despite lower refinery runs (Reuters)
- While smaller independent refineries have purchased smaller volumes, China’s imports of sanctioned Iranian oil have continued, especially at the port of Dalian
- China’s larger refiners stopped purchasing the sanctioned crude in 2018 and 2019, but the smaller refiners are less sensitive to the sanctions
- Sometimes tankers attempt to obscure the origin of the oil by rebranding it as having originated in Malaysia, Oman, or the UAE
- According to Vortexa, 45 MMBbls of Iranian oil were discharged at Dalian between October 2023 and June 2024

Natural gas prices head for a second-straight weekly loss amid high supply and disappointing storage print
- Prompt gas was 0.9c lower to $2.032/MMBtu (As of 8:14 AM)
- The Summer ’24 strip is down 1.2c to $2.096 and Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 0.2c to $3.122
- The EIA reported a 22 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending July 19, exceeding survey expectations but below historical norms, raising inventories to 3,231 Bcf, which is 456 Bcf above the five-year average and 249 Bcf higher than last year
- Today’s European Ensemble forecast showed minimal change with stable average temperatures, a significant warm-up in the South Central, a similar pattern to previous model runs, and a notable cooling trend in the Euro model for the 11-15 day period (Criterion)
NextEra adds 3 GW of renewables to backlog, 860 MW for data centers in Q2 2024
- NextEra added over 3,000 MW of new renewables and storage projects to backlog in Q2 2024, including 860 MW for Google data centers
- Backlog now totals about 22.6 GW, with recent projects comprising 820 MW of wind, 1,455 MW of solar, 530 MW of battery storage, and 210 MW of wind repowering
- CEO John Ketchum noted power demand is projected to grow four times faster over the next two decades, with renewables and battery storage playing a crucial role