First Look - Energy Transfer targets 2H 2024 FID on Warrior Pipeline, expands Permian processing

• Oil head for first weekly gain in four weeks
  • WTI prices are up more than $5 from this week’s low and more than $3 from last week's close
  • Citi updated their Brent crude forecast, calling for prices to rise to the low-mid $80s, driven by tight supply-demand balances, geopolitical risk, and speculator positioning
• US calls for new ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas (BBG)
  • The US, Qatar, and Egypt are calling for additional rounds of ceasefire talks on August 15 as they attempt to deescalate tensions in the Middle East
  • US officials say a deal is now closer than ever, despite the recent killing of a top Hamas official by Israel
  • Israel is continuing to prepare for a potential attack by Iran
  • A ceasefire could have a bearish impact on crude prices, as the risks of a wider war have supported oil over the past few months

• Russia exceeds OPEC+ target by 67 MBbl/d in July (Bloomberg)

  • Russia's crude oil production in July was 67 MBbl/d above its OPEC+ target due to one-off supply scheduling issues, said Russian Energy Ministry in a statement

  • The country plans to improve compliance in August and September, with compensatory cuts scheduled for October, November, and from March through September 2025

  • Despite the overproduction, Russia reiterated its commitment to the OPEC+ agreement and called on other member nations to adhere to their compensation plans

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Interest Rate Charts and Tables

• Gas heads for a 20c, or 11% weekly gain driven by lighter-than-average storage build continuing to shrink the supply surplus
  • Prompt gas was 4.5c higher to $2.172/MMBtu (As of 7:58 AM)
  • Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 2.6c to $3.240 and the Summer ’25 strip is up 2.5c to $3.188
  • Yesterday, the EIA reported a 21 Bcf injection into storage for the week ended Aug 2, bringing total inventories to 3,270 Bcf, which is 248 Bcf above the year-earlier level and 424 Bcf over the five-year average
  • Today’s European Ensemble shows a significant cooling trend across the Lower 48, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, with temps expected to remain below normal (Criterion)
• Energy Transfer targets 2H 2024 FID on Warrior Pipeline, expands Permian processing (S&P Global)
  • Energy Transfer is working towards an FID on the 1.5 Bcf/d Warrior Pipeline by 2H 2024, with no impact from the recent FID on Blackcomb Pipeline, said Co-CEO McRea on the 2Q earnings call
  • Energy Transfer is also upgrading four processing plants in the Permian Basin to add 200 MMcf/d in capacity, with completion expected between 4Q 2024 and 1Q 2025
  • The company is relocating an idled 200 MMcf/d processing plant to the Delaware Basin, aiming to have the Badger Plant operational by mid-2025
  • Additionally, Energy Transfer closed on the acquisition of West Texas Gas, adding eight processing plants with 1.3 Bcf/d capacity, and the newly online 200 MMcf/d Red Lake 3 Processing Plant
• Cheniere energizes Corpus Christi Stage 3 Train 1, targets first gas in two months (Criterion)
  • Cheniere's Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 is 62.4% complete as of June 30, with Train 1 liquefaction and utility substations energized and first gas flows expected in about two months
  • The seven-train, 10 Mtpa Stage 3 expansion aims for substantial completion between 1H25 and 2H26, with full ramp-up by year-end 2025
  • Cheniere received a positive Environmental Assessment for CCL Midscale Trains 8-9 in June, with an FID planned for 2025; the Sabine Pass LNG Expansion FID is expected in 2026
  • The Sabine Pass expansion includes two large-scale LNG trains, a 0.9 Mtpa boil-off gas reliquefication unit, and a 2.7 Bcf/d Sabine Crossing Pipeline to enhance gas flow capacity