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First Look - Oil is trading lower by more than $2/Bbl, near a year-to-date low | Saudi Arabia cuts official selling price to Asia

Oil is trading lower by more than $2/Bbl, near a year-to-date low
- WTI is now down nearly $13 from its peak near $84/Bbl in early July, now trading near $71/Bbl (As of 8:20 AM)
- RBC said in a note that they see a slowing macro environment and weak Asian demand contributing to a bearish outlook for crude prices
Saudi Arabia cuts official selling price to Asia (PGJ)
- Saudi Arabia is expected to reduce October crude prices for Asia amid weak refining margins and a drop in the Dubai benchmark
- The October official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude is expected to drop by 50 to 70 cents a barrel
- Weak refining margins, especially in China, are influencing this price cut
- If demand remains weak in Asia, OPEC may find it more challenging to bring supply back to the market
Exports from Libya’s Hariga Port stopped amid supply shutdown (PGJ)
- The Sarir oilfield, supplying Hariga, has nearly shut down; it normally produces about 209 MBbl/d
- Libya's National Oil Corporation reported a 63% (0.75 MMBbl/d) loss in total oil production due to recent oilfield closures
- A dispute over the central bank governor has escalated, leading to a standoff between eastern and western factions

Gas gives up earlier gains as the market weighs lingering heat against an upcoming fall cool down
- Prompt gas was 0.9c higher to $2.136 /MMBtu (As of 8:58 AM)
- Winter ‘24/’25 strip is down 5.8c to $2.971, and the Summer ’25 strip is down 5.3c to $3.012
- Over the Labor Day weekend, lower production countered the weakness in demand driven by plunging cooling-degree days
- Today's European Ensemble shows a net temperature drop of –5.7 F across the Lower 48, despite a +30.5 F warming in the West, with near-normal temps expected in the 11-15 day period (Criterion)
Texas regulators authorize staff to negotiate Texas Energy Fund loans for 9.8 GW of dispatchable generation (S&P Global)
- The Public Utility Commission of Texas approved its executive director to negotiate 17 Texas Energy Fund loans for 9.8 GW of dispatchable generation, virtually all fueled by natural gas
- The PUC received 72 applications for 38 GW of capacity, with evaluations based on technical and regional attributes, financial stability, and how quickly projects could serve the market
- The loan program’s application process, developed over several months, concluded on July 27, marking a significant step in supporting in-ERCOT generation