Market Insights > First Look

First Look - Oil trades near nine-month low with demand concerns and OPEC+ supply hike in focus

Oil is trading lower, below $70/Bbl (As of 8:25 AM)
- WTI prices have been under pressure in recent days as concerns over Asian fuel demand have outweighed risks from the Middle East and the shutdown of Libyan production
OPEC discussing possible delay to output hike (BBG)
- According to OPEC delegates, the group is discussing a possible delay to their planned output increase
- The recent decline in crude prices has spurred this
Two tankers attacked in the Red Sea (Argus)
- Yemen's Houthis attacked two crude oil tankers in the Red Sea, causing no damage but raising security concerns
- Oil flow through the Suez Canal declined by 7% on the month in August and was 51% below levels in August 2023
- Attacks on merchant shipping have led to higher geopolitical risk premium in crude prices, but lately, these events seem to have been overshadowed by concerns over oil demand
Transmountain Expansion leads to rate cuts among other pipelines (PGJ)
- Enbridge cut tariffs by 11% for September on its Mainline system for shipments of heavy crude
- This will reduce transport costs for Canada's heavy crude to the U.S.
- Canadian oil output is expected to increase by approximately 500,000 barrels per day by 2025, compensating for the added capacity from the Trans Mountain expansion

Gas fluctuated between modest gains and losses early Wednesday, awaiting clearer signals with little fundamental change
- Prompt gas was 3.7c higher to $2.24 /MMBtu (As of 7:45 AM)
- Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 3.3c to $3.070, and the Summer ’25 strip is up 1.0c to $3.076
- Today's European Ensemble shifted warmer today, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, while the South Central saw much cooler temperatures, and the 00z model verified yesterday's forecast, keeping 11-15 day temps near normal (Criterion)
New Fortress’s fast LNG 1 secures first non-FTA export approval since DOE pause (Criterion)
- New Fortress Energy received U.S. DOE approval to export up to 1.4 Mtpa of LNG to non-FTA nations from its Fast LNG 1 asset offshore Mexico
- The project began operations in July and already had approval for exports to FTA nations
- This is the first non-FTA export approval granted since the DOE paused application reviews in Jan. 2024
- The approval pertains to re-exporting U.S.-sourced natural gas as LNG from Mexico, differing from U.S.-based projects that need direct non-FTA export authorization