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First Look - Matterhorn pipeline begins gas flow, says Permian Resources | Oil set for fourth weekly loss, with prices falling below $70/Bbl

Oil set for fourth-weekly loss, with prices falling below $70/Bbl
- Prices fell significantly this week, despite a shutdown of Libyan production and a large draw of nearly 7 MMBbls from US inventories
- US economic data released today supports the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which should be supportive of crude prices
Crude markets may be oversupplied in 2025 (BBG)
- OPEC has prevented a surplus in 2024 by delaying the production increase, but balances may still loosen in 2025
- Higher output from OPEC and non-OPEC countries combined with subdued demand growth may lead to oversupply next year, according to estimates from the IEA
- However, the alliance has repeatedly stated that the increases could be paused or reversed, with OPEC attempting to keep prices elevated

Gas heads for a second straight weekly gain amid missed storage data, moderate weather outlook, and lower production
- Prompt gas was 0.4c lower to $2.25/MMBtu (As of 7:47 AM)
- Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 1.7c to $3.056, and the Summer ’25 strip is up 0.2c to $3.051
- EIA data showed a 13 Bcf injection, bringing storage to 3,347 Bcf, with surpluses now 24% above last year and 11% above the five-year average, the lowest since early February
- Today's European Ensemble was mixed, with colder days outweighing warmer ones, leading to a net temperature drop of -2.8 F, mostly in the Rockies/West, while the 8-15 day period remains near normal. (Criterion)
Texas Matterhorn pipeline begins gas flow, could boost Waha prices, Permian Resources says (PGJ)
- Yesterday, Permian Resources said the 2.5 Bcf/d Matterhorn pipeline has begun moving small gas volumes from the Permian to the Gulf Coast, aiming to improve persistently negative Waha prices
- Executives expect Waha prices to more consistently stay positive as gas flow through the pipeline ramps up over the next few months
- Waha prices have averaged below zero 33 times in 2024, including a record low of -$4.80/MMBtu on August 29, reflecting severe takeaway capacity constraints