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First Look - Gas trades lower as hurricane concerns counter cooling demand and lower production

Oil is trading higher this morning but remains near one-year lows
- Oil prices have tumbled over the past few weeks as broader macro concerns combined with weak Chinese fuel consumption have weighed on the market
Trafigura and Gunvor see a weak outlook for crude in the near term (BBG)
- Trafigura’s head of oil trading said Brent “is probably going to go into the $60s sometime relatively soon” but did mention geopolitical risks remain high
- Meanwhile, Gunvor said they see crude supply outpacing demand, with this trend potentially worsening over the next few years
- Recently, Morgan Stanley cut its crude price target for the second time in a matter of weeks
Colombian rebels attack oil infrastructure (BBG)
- A wave of pipeline attacks has sent crude spilling into rivers, as the ELN has reactivated its six-decade campaign of sabotage
- 14 pipelines have been attacked since late August, adding to concerns of a deteriorating security situation in the country
- About 7% of Colombia’s 777 MBbl/d production has been taken down

Gas trades lower as hurricane concerns outweighed strong cooling demand, and lower production
- Prompt gas was 6.5c lower to $2.21/MMBtu (As of 8:01 AM)
- Winter ‘24/’25 strip is down 2.8c to $3.029, and the Summer ’25 strip is down 1.1c to $3.045
- Demand risk posed by a potential tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico, which could become Hurricane Francine, weighed on prices
- Today's European Ensemble shifted colder with a -7.8 F drop in Lower 48 temps, while the South Central region saw a +13.8 F rise, and rangebound temps near the 10-year average are expected through late September. (Criterion)
U.S. regulators approve startup preparations for Plaquemines LNG plant in Louisiana (Reuters)
- Venture Global LNG received federal approval to start preparations for LNG production at its Plaquemines plant, located 20 miles south of New Orleans
- A tanker with LNG has been docked since late August to cool equipment for initial operations; another vessel, the Venture Gator, is anchored nearby, possibly for the same purpose
- Venture Global expects LNG exports from the plant’s first phase by the end of 2024, with total capacity reaching 20 MTPA, making it the second-largest U.S. LNG facility