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First Look - Libya to resume oil production | OPEC makes no changes to supply plan

Oil is trading higher for a third day as Israel is expected to attack Iran
- Israel is believed to be preparing a retaliatory strike against Iran following Iran’s missile barrage earlier this week
  - The risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East has supported oil prices through higher geopolitical risk premium
Libya to resume oil production (BBG)
- Libya will restart oil production today, returning hundreds of thousands of barrels to the market after resolving an internal political dispute
- The country typically produces about 1.2 MMBbl/d, which fell to about 450 MBbl/d in late August
- The returning supply may add more pressure to oil prices, which have weakened over the past several weeks amid concerns about tepid demand
OPEC makes no changes to supply plan (BBG)
- A statement from the group after an online monitoring meeting Wednesday said that OPEC did not announce any changes to their plan to bring supply back
- OPEC plans to restore about 2.2 MMBbl/d of supply between December and late 2025
- The next OPEC meeting will determine whether supply is returned starting in December or if it will be delayed due to market conditions

Gas trades higher ahead of storage print
- Prompt gas was 5.4c higher to $2.94/MMBtu (As of 7:45 AM)
- Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 2.1c to $3.314, and the Summer ’25 strip is up 0.8c to $3.258
- Today's European Ensemble shows a +5.2 F increase in Lower 48 temperatures, with the largest changes in the Midwest, South Central, and Rockies, while the Euro Ens model still expects cooler temperatures mid-next week. (Criterion)
Venture Global receives approval to advance Louisiana Calcasieu LNG plant toward commercialization (Reuters)
- U.S. FERC granted Venture Global permission to reintroduce hazardous fluids to "Heat Recover Steam Generator 373" at its Calcasieu LNG plant in Louisiana
- The company stated that the Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSGs) were a contributing factor in the delays to commercial operations, which have led to disputes with customers like BP and Shell.
- The plant has been sending out LNG cargoes in test mode since March 2022, but these are not for commercial use until the project is fully operational
- However, FERC said that this approval does not authorize the placement of other project facilities in service at the LNG terminal