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First Look - Calcasieu Pass LNG not expected to deliver commercial cargoes until April 2025

Oil is mostly unchanged following yesterday’s $3.25/Bbl decline
- Oil prices fell sharply yesterday as Israel announced they would not be striking Iranian oil infrastructure
- In addition, demand concerns continue to weigh on the market, with refining margins in Europe and Asia remaining weak
IEA sees OPEC market share falling through 2030 (S&P)
- OPEC's market share is predicted to fall from 34% to 33% by 2030 before recovering to 40% by 2050.
- IEA's alternative scenario sees 2050 global output at 52.1 MMBbl/d, with OPEC accounting for 21.36 MMBbl/d
- This loss of market share is driven by higher non-OPEC production

Gas trades lower as forecasts showed chilly weather giving way to mild autumn conditions across the Lower 48
- Prompt gas was 6.7c lower to $2.431/MMBtu (As of 7:45 AM)
- Winter ‘24/’25 strip is down 3.7c to $2.884, and the Summer ’25 strip is down 1.5c to $3.050
- Today’s forecast was 5.6 F warmer than yesterday’s, with the biggest changes on the coasts and a slight reduction in next week’s cooler temps (Criterion)
Calcasieu Pass LNG not expected to deliver commercial cargo until April 2025 (Criterion)
- Venture Global informed Edison it will not receive contracted LNG cargoes from the Calcasieu Pass facility until April 2025 due to technical issues with its power generation system
- Edison, which signed a 20-year contract in Sept 2017, has joined other companies, including Shell, BP, and Repsol, in arbitration cases against Venture Global for failing to deliver despite selling spot cargoes since March 2022
- Meanwhile, Shell was denied access to commissioning documentation, key for understanding why the facility isn't fully operational, with FERC limiting Venture Global's obligation to release documents before 2022