Market Insights > First Look

First Look - Oil heads for a near $6 weekly loss with US pushing for ceasefire in Gaza

Oil heads for a weekly decline of more than $5/Bbl
- Developments in the Middle East continue to push prices around, with the US still attempting to broker a ceasefire and the Israeli Prime Minister saying operations in Gaza are not yet completed
- Chinese data shows tentative signs of improvement, but recent briefings on additional economic stimulus left market participants underwhelmed
China’s refinery throughput hits a five-month high but is unlikely to sustain (S&P)
- China's crude throughput rebounded to 14.35 MMBbl/d in September; a five-month high
- Primary refinery capacity under maintenance is set to double in October to 960 MBbl/d
- China's oil demand growth is expected to decline in 2024 due to economic slowdown and efficiency improvements
- Crude production in China saw a slight year-on-year increase of about 1.6% to 4.28 MMBbl/d despite recent challenges

Gas heads for a near 33c weekly loss ahead of warmer forecasts for the rest of October
- Prompt gas was 3.1c lower to $2.316/MMBtu (As of 8:26 AM)
- Winter ‘24/’25 strip is down 4.3c to $2.787, and the Summer ’25 strip is down 2.7c to $3.007
- The European Ensemble forecast showed a cooler 6-10 day period and a warmer 11-15 day, shifting the Lower 48 pattern to cooler next week and warmer by late October, with flat or warmer trends outside the Northeast. (Criterion)
Kinder Morgan reaches FID on Permian brownfield natural gas pipeline expansion (NGI)
- Kinder Morgan confirmed FID for a 570 MMcf/d expansion of its Gulf Coast Express (GCX) pipeline, set to start service by mid-2026, after an initial proposal in 2022
- The GCX expansion will add capacity to the Permian's egress infrastructure alongside the 2.5 Bcf/d Blackcomb pipeline, also slated for 2026
- Executives expressed optimism on growth, with CEO Kimberly Dang citing potential expansions from Agua Dulce to Katy and anticipated market growth of 25 Bcf/d over the next five years
- KMI is advancing other projects, including the 10 Bcf Gulf Coast Storage Expansion, the Mississippi Crossing project, and the Trident Pipeline, which has Golden Pass LNG as an anchor shipper