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First Look - RBC sees oil market shifts if Trump wins the election | Energy Transfer, Williams plan natural gas pipeline expansions in US Southeast

Oil extends gains amid continued Middle East risks
- Market participants are continuing to anticipate an Israeli response to Iran, supporting geopolitical risk premium
- US Secretary of State arrived in Israel today to continue ceasefire discussions
- On Monday, China cut lending rates in an attempt to bolster it’s economy
RBC sees oil market shifts if Trump wins the election (BBG)
- The bank said, “Policy pivots on Russia and Iran could have implications for energy markets, with the former possibly securing a measure of sanctions relief and the latter facing a new raft of coercive measures.”
- Sanctions against Russia could be eased as part of a US push to end the war in Ukraine
- Iran may be the principal target of US sanctions, with new policies to reduce Iran’s oil revenue

Gas trades lower as forecasts see mild weather continuing into November
- Prompt gas was 3.7c lower to $2.275/MMBtu (As of 7:45 AM)
- Winter ‘24/’25 strip is down 4.7c to $2.788, and the Summer ’25 strip is down 3.0c to $3.004
- Average Lower 48 temps rose by 4.6 F, mainly in the 6-10 day period, with notable gains in the Northeast, South Central, and Rockies. However, cool temperatures are still expected late this week and early next (Criterion)
Energy Transfer, Williams plan natural gas pipeline expansions in US Southeast (S&P Global)
- Energy Transfer's South Mississippi Project will add 1 Bcf/d from East Texas to Mississippi, scalable to over 2 Bcf/d, starting in Q2 2028
- Williams' Transco's Dalton Lateral Expansion II aims to add 500 MMcf/d in Georgia, with a target date of Nov. 1, 2029
- Kinder Morgan’s Mississippi Crossing will increase capacity by 1.5 Bcf/d on Tennessee Gas Pipeline from Greenville, MS, starting Nov. 1, 2028
- Kinder Morgan also advanced its South System Expansion 4, aimed at increasing capacity by 1.2 Bcf/d on the Southern Natural Gas South Line, set for late 2028