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First Look - Oil prices were jolted higher after a report that Iran may be preparing to attack Israel

Oil prices were jolted higher after a report that Iran may be preparing to attack Israel
- WTI rose over a dollar just before the close on Thursday as Axios reported the alleged planned attack
- Oil continued this strength into Friday, up another $1.87/Bbl to $71.14 (8:17 AM)
- Before the report, we believed there was very little to no geopolitical risk premium in the oil market – that has now changed
According to Axios, Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi soil in the coming days
- Hossein Salami, commander of the IRGC, said on Thursday that Israel made a mistake when it attacked Iran and alluded to Iran’s response will be “different from any scenario"
- A high-ranking Iranian source told CNN that Iran is planning a “definitive and painful” response
- AEGIS notes that the continued tit-for-tat attacks between the two countries keep the war risk premium alive, but without disruptions to supply, prices will likely give up said premium

Dec’24 gas heads for a weekly loss as strong seasonal-weather demand remains elusive amid high storage levels
- Prompt gas was 2.5c lower to $2.682/MMBtu (As of 7:46 AM)
- Winter ‘24/’25 strip is down 1.5c to $2.786, and the Summer ’25 strip is down 1.8c to $2.915
- Today's 00z European Ensemble showed a significant shift, with temperatures east of the Rockies warming notably (+7.5°F net in Lower 48), while the Rockies/West cooled, especially in the 6-10 day outlook (Criterion)
FERC approves partial service for pipeline expansions in Virginia and North Carolina (S&P Global)
- FERC approved Transco's Southside Reliability Enhancement, enabling 273,400 Dt/d from Nov. 1 in NC and VA; full capacity of 423,400 Dt/d expected later in 2024
- Additionally, Columbia's Virginia Reliability Project began partial service on Nov 1 for existing customers; full 100,000 Dt/d capacity is projected for Nov 2025
- FERC also approved Rover’s Berne Meter Station expansion, raising Ohio capacity by 50,000 Dt/d; the project lacks a blanket certificate due to past regulatory concerns