- Oil prices rise as OPEC+ again delays the start of output increases
- The producer group was set to start unwinding cuts in December and, over the weekend, pushed its schedule back a month
- The original start date for these barrels was October
- This latest OPEC+ action makes sense to us as 2025 already looks oversupplied even without the cartel unwinding cuts
- AEGIS notes that OPEC+ knows that the globe doesn’t “need” more of their barrels starting at year-end without causing prices to slide further
- This latest action does seem to go against what OPEC’s own research tells them about the balance of supply and demand
- The producer group was set to start unwinding cuts in December and, over the weekend, pushed its schedule back a month
- Oil indicators
- WTI net-long positions in the managed money category fell for a fifth consecutive week, now at the lowest since early February
- Bullish call-skew increased for Brent crude, with call options gaining more than offsetting puts
- Timespreads strengthened on Monday morning after OPEC’s latest decision and Iran promising a “strong and Complex” attack on Israel
- The steeper (more backwardated) WTI curve has lifted Cal 2025 prices for producers by nearly $4/Bbl week over week
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