Market Insights > First Look

First Look - Tropical Storm Rafael threatens disruptions at US offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico

West Texas Intermediate edged higher Tuesday morning, now above $72/Bbl (8:13 AM) after OPEC+ delayed bringing back barrels by one month
- Markets await the final results of the US presidential election – Where the outcome has the potential to reshape US trade and climate policies, among others
- “Markets are, indeed, facing a few very nervous days,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM (BBG)
Tropical Storm Rafael threatens disruptions at US offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico (Bloomberg)
- Rafael is the Atlantic’s 17^th storm of this hurricane season and was 175 miles south of Jamaica yesterday (NHC)
- Models show a path headed directly to the Louisiana coast and will likely intersect with leases that produce about 1.7 MMBbl/d of oil and nearly 2 Bcf/d of gas
- AEGIS notes that typically, with Hurricanes, platforms evacuate, and supply may drop temporarily unless there is severe damage

Gas futures little changed as the market weighed bearish fundamentals against the potential impact of an incoming hurricane
- Prompt gas was 0.8c lower to $2.773/MMBtu (As of 7:47 AM)
- Winter ‘24/’25 strip is up 1.8c to $2.858, and the Summer ’25 strip is up 2.0c to $2.954
- Lower 48 temps trended 0.9 F colder in today’s 00z model, with a warmer Northeast balanced by cooler temps in the Midwest, Southeast, and South Central regions, maintaining the downward pattern from yesterday’s model (Criterion)
Rover pipeline applies for 400,000 Dt/d expansion of Pennsylvania gas system
- Rover Pipeline, primarily owned by Energy Transfer, applied to FERC on Oct 31 to expand its Harmon Creek and Bulger compressor stations in PA, targeting service by Q2 2026
- The project would allow Rover’s shippers to access an additional 400,000 Dth/d on the Burgettstown lateral, with Range Resources–Appalachia contracting for up to 250,000 Dth/d in firm service under Rover’s Rate Schedule FTS
- Alongside a recent 400,000 Dt/d interconnect proposal to the Revolution plant, the expansion supports Energy Transfer’s ethane export and enhances gas transport options