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First Look - IEA maintains outlook for oversupplied crude market

Oil is trading lower, reversing some gains from yesterday
- Prices are moving lower after three days of gains
- US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a softer oil market could create opportunities for further sanctions against Russia
IEA maintains outlook for oversupplied market in 2025 (BBG)
- According to the IEA, global crude markets are expected to be in a surplus in 2025 despite last week’s decision by OPEC to hold off on increasing output
- This outlook contrasts to the latest outlook by the EIA, which sees a small deficit in 2025
- If OPEC does go through with its plan to return supply, supply could outpace demand by 1.4 MMBBl/d; otherwise the market is expected to be oversupplied by 950 MBbl/d
- However, the IEA did say that the OPEC delay “has materially reduced the potential supply overhang that was set to emerge next year.”

Natural gas is trading higher, extending gains from yesterday
- Lower 48 weather forecasts shifted slightly colder this morning, with most changes in the Northeast and Midwest
- The EIA is expected to report a large draw from storage today, with the median estimate being -172 Bcf, according to Bloomberg
DOE holds up LNG approvals (PGJ)
- The U.S. Department of Energy cannot finalize reviews for two LNG projects in Louisiana until the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission completes its environmental assessments
- Projects affected are Venture Global LNG's CP2 facility and Commonwealth LNG's planned facility, both in Louisiana
- FERC pulled Venture Global's construction authorization for CP2 for additional air quality impact review, while Commonwealth LNG's project approval is on hold pending a supplemental environmental impact statement