Market Insights > First Look

First look - Oil heads for a second weekly loss

Oil is mostly unchanged from yesterday, trading around $72.80/Bbl
Goldman Sachs Raises Brent Crude Forecast for 2025
- The bank raised its forecast by $2/Bbl to $78/Bbl for 2025, and $2/Bbl to $73/Bbl for 2026
- OPEC+ compliance, Washington’s aim to ensure affordable prices, and America’s strategic petroleum reserves management will support crude in the $70-$85/Bbl range
- If sanctioned supply falls by 1MMBbl/d Brent could reach $93/Bbl, Goldman says
Trump says the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will not include oil (CNBC)
- The blanket tariffs on the countries’ products will come into effect on February 1
- If Canadian crude were subject to a 25% tariff, it would raise gasoline prices in the US Midwest region
Chevron see Permian Basin crude growth in 2025 (BBG)
- The supermajor says full-year production from the most-prolific shale field will be 9-10% higher than the 2024 average
- This growth in production comes despite producers practicing financial discipline and focused on capping capex and maximizing efficiency

Natural gas nears the $2 handle on the March contract's second day of being the prompt month
- March was down 4.6c to $3.00/MMBtu as weather models showed some demand loss
- The weather pattern set-up still keeps February demand risk fairly wide, according to CWG
  - February is estimated to average 720 HDDs, 17 HDDs below the 10-year normal, and would rank as the 9^th warmest Feb in the 2000’s (CWG)
The EIA reported a 321 Bcf draw from underground storage on Thursday for the week ended January 24
- The hefty withdrawal pushed inventories 111 Bcf below the five-year average
- At over 300 Bcf, last week’s pull was only the fourth draw over 300 Bcf on record (EIA)