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First Look - Oil prices swing as Iraqi government aims to increase export supply

Oil prices swing on Iraq supply concerns
- WTI for April delivery was $70.43 Monday morning
  - Futures lost as much as 0.9% to $69.80 at the start of trading
- Iraq may resume exports from the Kurdistan region as soon as this week via a Turkish pipeline
- A deputy Iraqi minister stated that the region could begin shipping 185 MBbl/d
- The restart of Iraqi export shipments, along with President Trump's upcoming decisions regarding tariffs, is sending mixed signals to the market.
Chevron crucial to the Venezuelan economy (BBG)
- With Chevron's assistance, Venezuelan crude production has risen back to 1 MMBbl/d
- The Trump administration has shifted its approach to Venezuela, diverging from the "maximum pressure" strategy used against Iran
  - President Trump now aims to use Chevron's involvement in Venezuela to achieve political objectives

Natural gas prices are trading sharply lower after weather forecasts warm
- The March Henry Hub contract is down nearly 30c, trading back below $4/MMbtu, and reversing gains from last week
- Lower 48 weather forecasts warmed significantly over the weekend, with the next two weeks expected to be near the ten-year average
- Gas production is recovering from last week’s freeze-offs, with output near 102.3 Bcf/d
FERC approves Northern Natural Gas pipeline expansion (S&P)
- FERC has granted authorization to Northern Natural Gas Co. to move forward with its Northern Lights 2025 project
- The project should expand capacity at the interconnect between Iroquois Gas and TC Energy’s Canadian Mainline by about 125 MMcf/d
- According to the FERC documentation, the project must be placed in service by March 2027