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First Look - Oil recovers from 11-week low amid tariffs uncertainty

WTI for April delivery rose 1% to $69.27 Thursday morning
- The market remains volatile due to uncertainty over President Trump's tariffs plan
- Tariffs of 25% for Mexico and Canada are scheduled to go into effect on March 4
  - Trump also announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports on the same date
  - Mexico, China and Canada are America’s top three trading partners
Trump reverses Chevron’s Venezuela license (Reuters)
- On Wednesday, President Trump announced that he was rescinding a license that had been granted to Chevron to operate in Venezuela
- Chevron exports about 240 MBbl/d from Venezuela, affecting the country's crude output
  - Revoking the license means Chevron will be unable to export crude oil from Venezuela.
- US imports of Venezuelan crude averaged 222 MBbbl/d in 2024, making Venezuela the fourth-largest supplier to the US, according to the EIA
  - Venezuelan oil represented 3.5% of total US crude imports in November, but about 13% of Gulf Coast refinery imports

Natural gas prices are mostly unchanged from yesterday, with April now the prompt month
- The EIA is expected to report a withdrawal of -266 Bcf from storage later this morning
Sempra targets 2025 FID for Port Arthur LNG expansion (S&P)
- Sempra is looking to secure an FID for its Port Arthur LNG expansion sometime this year as it advances commercial talks
- The proposed expansion had previously been caught up in the Biden administration's LNG permit approval pause, and while the DOE has yet to reissue permits, the agency said it plans to issue new permits soon
- Phase one of Port Arthur LNG is expected to enter service in 2027 with a capacity of 1.8 Bcf/d, while phase 2 will double capacity to 3.46 Bcf/d
Oneok sees higher gas prices boosting Midcontinent production (S&P)
- Recent gas price increases have led to increased activity by producers in the Midcont.
- Oneok’s Chief Commercial Officer said, “As we’ve been talking to our customers in the Midcontinent… we definitely are seeing increased activity," and that “Gas prices are up a little bit more, we’re seeing people start to come in a little bit harder in the Midcontinent. We're at or above where we would thought we would be three, four months ago."