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First Look - WTI slides as Trump's Fed criticism rattles markets, US-Iran talks resume

The WTI prompt-month contract fell $1.53 to $63.15/Bbl on Monday morning (7:45 AM CT), pressured by political uncertainty, macro demand and supply concerns
- The US dollar dropped to its lowest level since January 2024 after President Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence
- Trump’s frustration over stagnant interest rates escalated last week when he posted that Fed Chair Powell’s “termination cannot come fast enough”
- National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett added fuel to the fire by stating Trump is exploring whether he can remove Powell
Last week, all three major monthly energy reports downgraded 2025 oil demand growth forecasts
- The IEA slashed its estimate by 300 MBbl/d to 730 MBbl/d, the most bearish of the group
In the Middle East, the US and Iran signaled tentative progress in nuclear talks
- Iran’s foreign minister cited a “better understanding” after Saturday’s three-hour meeting with US officials, with further discussions set for Wednesday in Oman
- A breakthrough could reshape expectations for Iranian crude supply
Meanwhile, US sanctions on Iranian oil flows continue to intensify
- Last week, the Treasury Department sanctioned Chinese refiner Shengxing Chemical Co. for handling over $1 billion of Iranian crude
- In March, Shandong Shougang Luqing Petrochemical Co. was penalized for buying approximately $500 million in Iranian barrels

Natural gas trades at the lowest level since January
- The May Henry Hub contract is down this morning, following last week’s decline, with prices trading around $3.17/MMbtu
- Production jumped over the weekend, with data from S&P showing output above 107 Bcf/d, although that has moderated to 106.2 Bcf/d this morning
- Demand is expected to be limited over the next two weeks as temperatures remain mild across the Lower 48
Load growth in Texas could challenge ERCOT (S&P)
- ERCOT has 135 GW of large loads in its interconnection queue, with 55 GW having been added in 2025 alone
- During the Gulf Coast Power Association Spring conference, Oncor’s VP of corporate strategy said they have 137 GW of industrial and commercial interconnection requests, while Oncor’s current peak power demand is 31 GW
- However, they said it's implausible that most of these requests lead to actual development, with it being difficult to determine which requests are serious
China stops US LNG imports (BBG)
- China’s US LNG purchases fell nearly to zero in March, due to the escalating trade war between the two countries
- The trade war has led China to impose a 125% tariff on US LNG, with the country now turning to Indonesia and Qatar for LNG supply
- Contracted LNG cargoes from the US may be resold to other buyers