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First Look - Natural gas rebounds from yearly low

WTI prompt-month contract rose 82c to $69.30/Bbl Tuesday morning (7:45 AM CT), partially rebounding from Monday’s sharp sell-off triggered by President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell
- The recovery was supported by gains in US equity futures and signs of near-term supply tightness
  - The front-month Brent contract is trading at its widest premium to the second month since January (Bloomberg)
Russian crude exports to India climb back toward pre-sanction levels
- India’s Russian crude imports are set to reach 2.15 MMBbl/d in April, the highest since May 2023 (Kpler)
- Volumes have rebounded sharply after hitting a 14-month low in February, as trade routes adjust and supply chains normalize post-US sanctions
- The recovery in flows coincides with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two-day visit to Saudi Arabia, where energy ties with the OPEC+ leader are expected to top the agenda

Natural gas prices recover some of yesterday's losses
- Yesterday, May Henry Hub fell 23c to a five-month low
- Weather forecasts show temperatures above the ten-year average for the next two weeks, with today’s warmer shift resulting in a loss of expected demand
- LNG feedgas demand moved higher, to 16.26 Bcf/d, while flows have averaged about 16.4 Bcf/d this month
Trade war expected to curb global gas demand growth (NGI)
- The IEA sees global demand growth for natural gas weakening this year, as increasing macroeconomic concerns weigh on consumption
- Year-over-year demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.5% in 2025, with growth continuing to be driven by the Asia-Pacific region
- Meanwhile, LNG supply growth is anticipated to grow by 5%, with 85% of new capacity from North America
- The IEA also sees power sector gas demand in North America marginally declining in 2025 as the renewables buildout continues