- Retail regular gasoline prices fell by 13c in the last four weeks to $3.762/Gal. About 56% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
- Scroll down for a chart of the RBOB-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
- Total motor gasoline inventories fell by 0.9 MMBbl/d for the week ending November 4 and are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year
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- Retail diesel prices rose by 6.1c in the last four weeks to $5.313/Gal. About 42% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
- Scroll down for a chart of the NY Harbor ULSD-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
- Distillate fuel inventories fell by 0.5 MMBbl/d for the week ending November 4 and are about 17% below the five-year average for this time of year
- The IEA cautions that the diesel demand may decline in 2023
- The organization said that fuel consumption is already beginning to feel the strain of rising prices, and 4Q2022's global demand is expected to decline by 0.240 MMBbl/d from last year's levels
- The group also forecasted that demand growth for diesel would decrease from 1.500 MMBbl/d in 2021 to 0.400 MMBbl/d in 2022 due to the high fuel prices
- The group continued to add that “The increasingly ominous global outlook, along with very high prices, is set to significantly curtail diesel demand in 2023”
- Additionally, the EU embargo on Russian crude oil and refined products will create huge uncertainties in the global oil and product markets in just a few weeks, said IEA
- Talking about the G7 nations’ price cap on Russian Crude, the agency said, “A proposed oil price cap may help alleviate tensions, yet a myriad of uncertainties and logistical challenges remain”
- The price cap will go into effect on December 5, and the EU will also prohibit companies from providing shipping, finance, and insurance for tankers carrying Russian crude unless the shipments are priced below a cap, a figure that the G7 and EU have not yet agreed upon
- AEGIS notes that a price cap at any level would be bullish as it increases the chances of a decline in Russian output
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