Transportation Fuels First Look - Week Ending October 2, 2023

• Scroll down for a chart of the RBOB-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
• Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 1 MMBbl for the week ending September 23 and are about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year

• Refining capacity is set to decrease by about 2.5 MMBbl/d for maintenance from September to December, marking an 11% increase from last year
• The 3-2-1 futures crack spread fell from its YTD high of $43/Bbl in August to $23/Bbl. While diesel margins have held strong, gasoline margins are seeing a post-summer decline
• Estimated offline processing capacity for September was 0.53 MMBbl/d and is projected to be 1.48 MMBbl/d in October, and 0.45 MMBbl/d in November, with no planned outages in December, according to Energy Aspects
• However, these figures only account for scheduled maintenance; real numbers may rise due to unforeseen shutdowns or additional work

• Scroll down for a chart of the NY Harbor ULSD-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
• Distillate fuel inventories rose by 0.4 MMBbl for the week ending September 23 and are about 13% below the five-year average for this time of year

Russia mulls exempting fuel producers from export ban (Bloomberg)

• Russia is considering allowing only fuel-producing companies to export diesel while maintaining the ban for gray-market exporters
• The initial export ban, which also included gasoline, was aimed at controlling domestic fuel prices ahead of the upcoming presidential elections
• While discussions continue, a decision on modifying the ban might be reached this week, according to people familiar with the matter