- Retail regular gasoline prices rose by 5c in the last four weeks to $3.64/Gal. About 56% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
- Scroll down for a chart of the RBOB-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
- Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 0.3 MMBbl for the week ending April 26 and are 3% below the five-year average for this time of year
- Gasoline demand growth may slow in 2024 on EV growth in China, U.S. (Woodmac, Reuters)
- Global gasoline demand growth may decline in 2024, attributed to increased EV adoption in the U.S. and China, along with a return to normal consumption after the pandemic recovery
- global gasoline demand is projected to increase by only 0.34 MMBbl/d this year to 26.5 MMBbl/d, said Wood Mackenzie; Rystad Energy estimates a similar trend at 26 MMBbl/d, up 0.3 MMBbl/d for 2024
- China's gasoline demand is expected to increase slightly by 1.3% to 165.1 million tons, while Sinopec forecasts a 1.7% increase to 182 million tons this year
- However, India's gasoline consumption is anticipated to reach a record 39.2 million tons by March 2025, a 5% rise
- Additionally, U.S. refining margins may continue to face pressure after the summer driving season, said Woodmac and Rystad analysts
- Despite being seasonal, gasoline margins in the U.S. and Asia grew by 67% this year, reaching about $29/Bbl of WTI crude
- Margins strengthened amid refinery outages in Asia and the U.S. and higher freight costs resulting from Red Sea shipping and Russian infrastructure attacks
- Russia government mulls lifting gasoline exports ban (Bloomberg)
- Russia's energy ministry suggested a temporary lift on the gasoline export ban due to an oversupply in the domestic market, according to Deputy PM Alexander Novak via Interfax
- The proposal aims to prevent future potential deficits and will be reviewed by the government soon
- the current ban, effective from March 1 to Aug. 31, excludes exports governed by intergovernmental agreements, such as those with the Eurasian Economic Union
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- Retail diesel prices fell by 15.5c to $3.894/Gal in the last four weeks. About 47% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
- Scroll down for a chart of the NY Harbor ULSD-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
- Distillate fuel inventories fell by 0.7 MMBbl for the week ending April 26 and are about 7% below the five-year average for this time of year
- China issues second fuel export quota as surplus is set to expand (Bloomberg)
- China issued a second fuel export quota totaling 14 million tons of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, bringing this year's overall allocation to 33 million tons
- The new total quota is 18% higher than the combined quotas from the first two batches given to exporters last year
- Chinese refiners' fuel exports this month are expected to rise 6.5% from April, with year-to-date exports up 26%, mostly in gasoline shipments
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