Retail regular gasoline prices fell by 13.7c in the last four weeks to $3.136/Gal. About 55% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
Scroll down for a chart of the RBOB-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 1.1 MMBbl for the week ending September 27 and are 1% below the five-year average for this time of year
Russia cuts October oil refining on seasonal works, lower margins (BBG)
Russia’s average primary oil refining dropped to 5.06 MMBbl/d on Oct. 1-2, 215 MBbl/d lower than most of September and down 90 MBbl/d from Sept 19-25.
This marks the lowest processing rate since mid-March, with the Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea, operated by Rosneft, not processing any crude in the first two days of October
Refinery runs are impacted by scheduled seasonal maintenance and lower margins, particularly in Russia’s southern regions
Retail diesel prices fell by 7.5c to $3.584/Gal in the last four weeks. About 50% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
Scroll down for a chart of the NY Harbor ULSD-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
Distillate fuel inventories fell by 1.3 MMBbl for the week ending September 27 and are about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year
Distillate fuel oil demand will increase in the fall because of the agricultural harvest (EIA)
U.S. distillate fuel oil consumption typically rises during the fall as diesel-powered agricultural equipment is used for harvesting and transporting crops, peaking from mid-October through November
In the last five years, U.S. distillate consumption has increased by an average of 4% between Sept. and Oct., mainly due to agricultural harvest activities, with corn and soybeans comprising over 55% of U.S. planted acreage
Midwest distillate demand is most impacted by the harvest, with inventories peaking in mid-Sept. and dropping by about 25% through November, as most corn and soybeans are produced in this region
In 2024, early indicators suggest that harvest will follow the five-year average, but Midwest distillate inventories entered the season slightly below average due to refinery outages in Chicago and Ohio earlier in the year
Get market insights delivered to your Inbox every day!
