- Oil is higher by more than $1.50 to $79.30, ahead of expected inventory draw
- The API is forecasting a 5.5 MMBbl draw from US inventories, which would be the first draw in seven weeks
- US crude output could rise more than expected (BBG)
- The EIA has increased its forecast for 2024 average US production to 13.19 MMBbl/d from its prior forecast of 13.1 MMBbl/d
- Rising output from non-OPEC countries threatens OPEC's attempts to reduce supply and balance global crude markets and poses a large bearish risk to prices
- Despite higher production from the US, Guyana, Brazil, and Canada, the EIA expects production to fall short of consumption by 260 MBbl/d in 2024, while they expect 2025 to be oversupplied by 360 MBbl/d
- Major Russian refinery on fire following drone attack (BBG)
- The Ryazan refinery, one of Russia’s largest, was hit by a Ukrainian drone leading to a large fire at the facility
- In the past two days facilities accounting for about 10% of Russia’s refining capacity have been hit by drones, but it is unknown how much capacity has been taken offline
- The attacks could lead to reduced product exports from Russia
