- Retail regular gasoline prices fell by 14.8c in the last four weeks to $3.684/Gal. About 50% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
- Scroll down for a chart of the RBOB-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
- Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 6.5 MMBbl for the week ending September 29 and are about 1% above the five-year average for this time of year
- US gasoline demand plunges to lowest in 25 years (Bloomberg)
- Last week, the EIA data showed that the four-week average implied fuel consumption dropped to 8.3 MMBbl/d last week, the lowest seasonal rate since 1998
- This morning, front gasoline cracks bounced back from Monday's decline, trading around $9.53/Bbl
- Inventories rose by 6.5 MMBbl/d for the week ending Sept. 29, while exports saw a small uptick and imports were down slightly
- AEGIS believes that the implied demand calculations, influenced by factors like production, imports, and especially recent storage figures, might be overstated
- Furthermore, Goldman, in a note to clients last week, highlighted alternate data points, such as ethanol blending and physical price findings, to suggest that demand is still robust
|
- Retail diesel prices rose by 2.3c in the last four weeks to $4.498/Gal. About 44% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
- Scroll down for a chart of the NY Harbor ULSD-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
- Distillate fuel inventories fell by 1.3 MMBbl for the week ending September 29 and are about 13% below the five-year average for this time of year
- Diesel exports from the US to Europe head toward highest since 2019 (Bloomberg)
- US diesel exports to Europe are reaching the highest level since August 2019, as eight vessels have loaded a combined 0.286 MMBbl/d, according to Kpler
- As US refiners undergo the heaviest fall maintenance since 2019, Europe is competing for US volumes of diesel with Brazil, which also secured four diesel cargoes so far this month
- In the US, demand for distillates has risen above seasonal norms since last month, likely due to strong trucking and harvest consumption
- Transport costs surge as Rhine water levels fall to lowest in a year (Bloomberg)
- Rhine's chokepoint at Kaub sees its lowest water levels in over a year due to a prolonged dry spell, affecting barge rates for various goods.
- Transport costs, specifically for diesel to the Upper Rhine, have surged, with rates reaching 39 euros a ton—higher than the 2018-2022 average for this period
- Current conditions allow vessels to load only about 900 tons, with expected further reductions as water levels continue to drop
|
