May 4, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is down $19.50/mt, continuing its downtrend.
  • Last trade was $2,303/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Chinese aluminum demand is mixed, according to Mysteel. Inventories of ingot have dropped in recent weeks, but aluminum extrusion orders have dropped at the same time.
  • Further curtailments in Yunnan province, which is China’s top production region, remain a concern. Falling production costs due to an oversupply of alumina is a bearish factor, however. (Source: Mysteel)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $62/mt but is still within the recently tight trading range.
  • Last trade was $8,551/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Earlier this week, Codelco, which is the world’s largest copper producer, reported that 1Q2023 production was 326,000 mt, down 10% compared to 1Q2022. This is nearly their lowest in 25 years. The company cited equipment issues, a dam freeze, and a rockslide for the drop in production. Annual production guidance is 1.35 million to 1.42 million mt, according to Bloomberg figures.
  • Despite the Chilean production issues, Macquarie estimates there will be a small 133,000 mt surplus in global refined copper production in 2023.
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $1,105/st. (6:45 AM).
  • Believing that prices will move, American steel buyers are holding back purchases, according to Argus. Argus’s weekly HRC assessment has fallen in three of the past four weeks due to subpar end-user demand.

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Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

05/3/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

05/3/2023: Copper producers can benefit from hedging both inputs and production

5/4/2023: ArcelorMittal beats profit expectations on higher steel demand

5/3/2023: Albemarle cuts annual profit forecast on softening lithium prices

5/2/2023: US HRC: Prices fall, buyers hold out

5/2/2023: India's Tata Steel Q4 profit slumps 83%

5/2/2023: Lithium prices bounce after big plunge, but surpluses loom

5/2/2023: Platinum prices surge as speculators bet supply will run short

4/28/2023: Aluminium producer Norsk Hydro's Q1 core profit falls less than expected

4/28/2023: Indonesia to allow Freeport, Amman Mineral to ship copper concentrate until 2024

4/28/2023: Chile's lithium takeover plan faces technical, political challenges

4/27/2023: Aerospace manufacturing curbed by labour, supply chains

4/26/2023: SDI starts year with strong Q1

4/26/2023: A Glance of the China Aluminum Market Week 4, April 2023

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