May 17, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $9.5/mt, rallying alongside all other LME metals.
  • Last trade was $2,274.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Aluminum production in the Middle East could be ramping up soon. Alcoa just signed a long-term agreement to supply Emirates Global Aluminum with 15.6 million mt of alumina over an 8-year period, starting in 2024.
  • Like aluminum, LME alumina prices have tumbled in recent months due to chronic global oversupply.
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $94.5/mt, after yesterday’s 1.8% drop.
  • Last trade was $8,214.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Despite lower-than-normal global mine production in Q1 due to operational issues, Deutsche Bank believes that global copper mine output will increase by 9% this year.
  • This is mainly due to increasing production at Anglo American’s Quellaveco and Teck Resources’ QB2 greenfield projects. They also expect production increases from First Quantum Minerals and Freeport McMoran as they overcome previous operational challenges.
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $1,093/st. (6:45 AM).
  • A slowing European automotive sector will weigh on steel demand in the second half of 2023, according to Argus.
  • The overall prospects for European steel demand look good, specifically for the continent’s EV sector. According to the World Steel Association, “an EV could require up to 260-280kg more steel than an internal combustion engine vehicle, which Argus estimates requires around 900kg of steel.” (Source: Argus)

Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here. 

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

05/10/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

05/3/2023: Copper producers can benefit from hedging both inputs and production

5/15/2023: Glassmaking decline to weigh on metals demand

5/15/2023: EU automotive industry braces for 2H slowdown

5/15/2023: Ma’aden finalizes groundbreaking agreement with Ivanhoe Electric Inc. to explore major untapped resources in Saudi Arabia

5/15/2023: LME to require warehouses to feel their nickel bags after heist

5/15/2023: Copper prices rise after last week's slump with China liquidity injection

5/15/2023: Platinum facing biggest deficit in years as carmakers snap up metal

5/12/2023: Global long steel demand outlook weak in 2023

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