September 18, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $5/mt, almost unchanged.
  • Last trade was $2,201/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Hindalco Industries, India’s largest aluminum company, is bullish on the aluminum demand prospects. India’s aluminum demand is expected to jump to 9 million mt/year, up from 4.5 million mt currently. This is largely due to the continued buildouts of numerous infrastructure projects nationwide. India is currently the world's second-largest aluminum producer and the third-largest consumer, Hindalco also stated. These comments were made at last week's Fastmarkets International Aluminium Conference. (Source: Reuters)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $28.5/mt, adding to Friday’s losses.
  • Last trade was $8,380.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Codelco, Chile’s state-owned copper producer and one of China’s largest suppliers, is overhauling its contracts with major Chinese buyers. Currently, the contracts are for only copper concentrate, but after 2025, the contracts will “include concentrate and value-added intermediate products such as blister and anode which are derived from concentrate and can be turned into copper metal or cathode,” according to unnamed sources cited by Reuters. The unnamed sources also stated, "Some Chinese customers have protested against the changes but will have to accept new contract negotiations that include intermediates because they will need Codelco's concentrates at a time when deficits are expected.” (Source: Reuters)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $704/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • Prices and demand for busheling scrap, a critical raw material for steelmaking, could also be affected by the recently launched autoworkers strike. Prompt month CME Busheling Scrap prices have already fallen about 30% from the highs of mid to late March due to subpar steel demand. Meanwhile, steel mill margins are down over 50% since mid to late April, as HRC prices have fallen more than scrap. A further blow in end-user steel demand could further suppress steel mill margins and, in turn, pressure scrap prices. (Source: Argus)

Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here. 

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

09/13/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

09/12/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

09/08/2023: Despite Price Slump, Hedging is Still Feasible for Steel Producers

08/25/2023: Growing Secondary Aluminum Supply Could Further Weigh on Prices

08/18/2023: Steel Buyers Can Strengthen Pricing Power During Industry Consolidation

9/15/2023: US auto workers launch strikes at three plants

9/15/2023: Tata Steel reaches £500mn deal with UK government

9/15/2023: Codelco ends long-term mined copper deals to China clients from 2025 -sources

9/14/2023: Aluminium sector surging in India, but hampered by labour shortages, Hindalco executive says

9/13/2023: China Hongqiao shifts 1.5 million T aluminium capacity to Yunnan so far

9/12/2023: US HRC: Market drops amid feared auto strike

9/12/2023: Russian aluminium splits dealmakers at Barcelona metals meet

9/12/2023: SMM Data: China’s Aluminium Output In August And Forecast For September

9/12/2023: Factbox: From UPS to Detroit Three automakers, US labor unions flex muscle

9/12/2023: India's steel mills expect wheel prices to ease after anti-dumping duty on China

9/11/2023: Russian miner Udokan Copper launches processing plant

9/10/2023: US, Saudi Arabia in talks to secure metals in Africa, Wall Street Journal reports

9/7/2023: Saudi Arabia’s crown prince looks to metals as new source of wealth

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.