September 25, 2023

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $17.5/mt, regaining some ground after yesterday’s nearly 1.5% loss.  
  • Last trade was $2,239.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • According to filings from earlier this week, Glencore only purchased about 1.1 million mt of aluminum per year from Rusal between 2020 and 2022, far less than the volume allowed under the current contract. In April 2020, Glencore signed an agreement to buy a total of 6.9 million mt, or approximately 1.6 million mt/year from Rusal between 2021 and 2024. Last year, Glencore stated it will not make any new contracts for Russian metal but will meet current obligations. Earlier this week, Reuters suggested that contract could be extended through 2025, or if ended early, could open the door to Rusal selling previously contracted metal Glencore’s rivals, namely Trafigura. (Source: Reuters)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $24/mt, regaining most of yesterday’s losses.
  • Last trade was $8,249/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Chinese research firm Antaike believes that copper demand could remain suppressed through 2024, they proclaimed at a conference earlier this week. This is mainly because demand from the energy transition remains slow and the ongoing global manufacturing contraction continues to suppress demand. This “downward cycle” could persist through the second half of 2024 or even into 2025, they also stated. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $704/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • Automaker Ford has averted a potential strike by Canadian workers, the company and the Unifor labor union announced on Tuesday. According to Argus, the potential strike would have affected two engine plants and SUV plant and could have rippled into the US supply chain. Meanwhile, the ongoing UAW strike, which launched last week and has already affected supply and demand for American steel, could expand on Friday afternoon. (Source: Argus)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

09/20/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

09/12/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

09/08/2023: Despite Price Slump, Hedging is Still Feasible for Steel Producers

08/25/2023: Growing Secondary Aluminum Supply Could Further Weigh on Prices

08/18/2023: Steel Buyers Can Strengthen Pricing Power During Industry Consolidation

9/22/2023: Stellantis to invest $500 million in Rio plant

9/22/2023: Auto parts maker Marelli to discuss Italian plant closure with unions

9/22/2023: UAW strike set to hit deep into the industry's supply base

9/21/2023: Canada's Stelco Holdings is said to weigh bid for U.S. Steel, Bloomberg reports

9/20/2023: Canada union, Ford agree to tentative deal

9/20/2023: UAW official: Stellantis 'stockpiling' parts in Belvidere as strike continues

9/19/2023: UAW could expand auto strike on Friday

9/19/2023: Canadian autoworkers extend negotiations with Ford, delaying a possible strike

9/18/2023: US Steel idles Granite City mill on auto strike

9/18/2023: Rio Tinto shoulders Simandou iron ore bill as Chinese funds delayed - sources

9/18/2023: UPDATE 1-Glencore took low volumes of Rusal aluminium, contract could go to 2025

9/18/2023: Stellantis could close 18 facilities under UAW deal — here are the full details of its latest offer

9/17/2023: China's Aug aluminium imports rise on demand hopes, thin stock

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