October 6, 2023

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $7/mt, almost unchanged.
  • Last trade was $2,239/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Approximately 80% of aluminum production in the US comes from secondary sources, but this could increase slightly to 82% by 2028, according to BNEF. This is mainly due to new plants by Novelis and Steel Dynamics coming online. Secondary aluminum production uses 95% less electricity than primary, making it less susceptible to electricity price shocks. The cost of production depends mainly upon scrap input costs and can vary depending on smelter capacity utilization. (Source: BNEF/Bloomberg) 
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $87/mt, bouncing after four days of losses.
  • Last trade was $7,976/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • As of this writing, LME Copper 3M has fallen about $300/mt, or 3.7%, this week, having coughed all of last week’s gains. Similarly, prices are down about 4.9% on the year. Investment bank Citigroup remains bearish on copper demand into 2024, citing continually weakening global economic growth. Although China’s economic stimulus measures remain “piecemeal,” they could somewhat support the copper market, they also stated. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $705/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • At 2,066,878 mt, steel imports into the US slumped to a new 2023 low in August. Import volumes seasonally fall in the late summer months, but import volumes in July and August 2023 are down roughly 10% compared to last year. Meanwhile, American steel production volumes have been rangebound in 2023, hovering between 1.5 and 1.8 million short tons per week. The slump in imports amid stagnant production could suggest that the American steel market is still slightly oversupplied. This fall in imports and stalled production comes while CME HRC Steel prices continue to fall and hover near 40% off the highs of mid-April. (Sources: AISI, US Census Bureau, CME)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

10/02/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

09/28/2023: Aluminum Buyers Should Hedge Alongside Chinese Importers

09/27/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

09/08/2023: Despite Price Slump, Hedging is Still Feasible for Steel Producers

08/25/2023: Growing Secondary Aluminum Supply Could Further Weigh on Prices

10/6/2023: LME WEEK-Resilient China demand supports copper prices, boosts local aluminium prices

10/5/2023: EU, US seek interim steel deal to avoid return of Trump tariffs - Bloomberg News

10/4/2023: LMEWEEK Hydro CEO sees rapid demand growth for low-carbon aluminium

10/4/2023: Rusal says production at Siberian aluminium smelter unaffected after fire

10/3/2023: US HRC: Prices rise despite strike headwinds

10/3/2023: Nucor keeps plate prices flat

10/2/2023: Japan's Mitsubishi Materials sees H2 copper output up 34% y/y

10/1/2023: Glencore may look elsewhere for recycling hub after Italy rejects fast-track approval

9/29/2023: Quebec in talks with battery, auto makers for C$15 billion in EV-related investments

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.