October 18, 2023

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $11.5/mt, bouncing after six days of losses.
  • Last trade was $2,188.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • In Q3, Rio Tinto, the largest aluminum producer in the Western world, saw its aluminum production jump by 9.1% to 928,000 mt, the company announced yesterday. Production of bauxite and alumina also increased slightly. As for metals demand, the company stated, “China’s economic recovery has been uneven, as the property market continues to weigh on the economy and prompts further policy easing…. Consumer confidence in the US has started to wane while manufacturing activity in advanced economies decelerated further as recessionary risks remain.” (Source: Bloomberg)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $76/mt, recouping yesterday’s losses.
  • Last trade was $8,037/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Glencore is closing its Mount Isa copper mines in Australia by the end of 2025, citing declining ore grades and the fact that the mines have reached the end of their natural life. The copper smelter and refinery will remain open, as there is enough 3^rd party business to make them operational. The zinc operations will remain unaffected. The Mount Isa mines are the second-largest copper producer in Australia. (Sources: Glencore, Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $705/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • The prompt-month CME hot-dipped-galvanized (HDG) Premium contract has ticked slightly higher to $170/st in October. Before the recent rally, this premium had been flat at $150/mt for nearly three months. In 2023, the CME HDG premium has fallen alongside LME zinc. Prices for LME Zinc, the key raw material for HDG steel production, have fallen 19% this year, making it the second worst-performing LME metal. (Sources: LME, CME)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

10/17/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

10/11/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

09/28/2023: Aluminum Buyers Should Hedge Alongside Chinese Importers

09/08/2023: Despite Price Slump, Hedging is Still Feasible for Steel Producers

08/25/2023: Growing Secondary Aluminum Supply Could Further Weigh on Prices

10/17/2023: LME Week consensus is a bright future but short-term pain

10/17/2023: Glencore to shut Mount Isa copper mines by 2025, cut 1,000 jobs - AFR

10/16/2023: U.S, EU business groups push for steel deal, minerals drive at summit

10/13/2023: Large EU steelmakers shun OEM index requests

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.