October 25, 2023

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $5/mt, essentially flat.
  • Last trade was $2,211/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • The news on Rusal continues. In a rare move, Rusal has agreed to acquire a 30% stake in Chinese alumina producer Hebei Wenfeng New Materials. This will help Rusal fill an alumina supply gap that has flared up due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Since the conflict began in February 2022, Rusal has struggled to secure non-domestic supplies of the key raw material due to self-sanctioning efforts by foreign suppliers and other supply constraints. (Source: Bloomberg)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $58.5/mt, taking away part of yesterday’s 1.1% rally.
  • Last trade was $8,018.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • China’s copper smelters continue to churn out record volumes. In September, the country’s refined copper production hit 1.14 million mt, a new record output for the second month in a row. Chinese refined copper production has been 1 million mt or higher for every month so far in 2023. This record production comes amid higher demand from the renewable energy sector, despite a sagging real-estate sector. Smelter capacity utilization, which measures how much of the country’s capacity is being used, reached 94.21%, a new high for 2023. (Sources: Bloomberg, Shanghai Metal Market)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $812/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • Due to higher costs and lower volumes, Nucor’s sales last quarter were $883 million, well below one analyst’s estimate of $1 billion. In Q3, Nucor had an average scrap and scrap substitute of $415/gross ton, higher than their estimate of $391.37/gross ton. Given that the average 2024 CME Busheling Fe Scrap futures price is approximately $495/gross ton, unless prices drop significantly, Nucor could experience high raw material costs into 2024. (Source: Bloomberg, CME)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

10/18/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

10/17/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

09/28/2023: Aluminum Buyers Should Hedge Alongside Chinese Importers

09/08/2023: Despite Price Slump, Hedging is Still Feasible for Steel Producers

08/25/2023: Growing Secondary Aluminum Supply Could Further Weigh on Prices

10/24/2023: Stellantis to enter JV with Orano to recycle electric car batteries

10/24/2023: Hydro gets boost from renewables deal as Q3 core profit lags

10/24/2023: Teck Resources misses quarterly profit estimates, trims copper output forecast

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.