November 2, 2023

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is down $7/mt, its third consecutive down day.
  • Last trade was $2,231/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Aluminum smelters in China’s Yunnan province, the country’s top production region, will soon curtail output by between 9% to 40%, according to recent reports. These production cuts are due to anticipated hydropower supply issues as the region enters its dry season. Based on calculations by Goldman Sachs, this will remove approximately 600,000 mt out of production from November through May. (Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $35/mt, bouncing after two days of losses.
  • Last trade was $8,143/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Metals prices, including LME Copper, stalled on Tuesday and Wednesday as Chinese economic data continues to disappoint. China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key gauge of the country’s manufacturing sector, fell in October, signaling that the sector continues to contract. Except for a brief spike in September, China’s manufacturing sector has been contracting since April. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $883/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • BHP, one of Australia’s largest iron ore producers, could be hit with a worker strike in early November. Unless BHP negotiates for better pay and benefits, certain railroad workers for the company’s Western Australian Iron Ore unit will likely strike, the union announced earlier this week. Australia is responsible for nearly one-third of global iron ore production, according to the USGS. (Source: Argus, USGS)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

11/1/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

10/17/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

09/28/2023: Aluminum Buyers Should Hedge Alongside Chinese Importers

09/08/2023: Despite Price Slump, Hedging is Still Feasible for Steel Producers

08/25/2023: Growing Secondary Aluminum Supply Could Further Weigh on Prices

11/1/2023: Nippon Steel lifts annual outlook on improved first-half margins

10/31/2023: Automakers oppose Cleveland-Cliffs push to buy U.S. Steel

10/31/2023: Chinese aluminium smelters to cut output as Yunnan enters dry season

10/30/2023: UAW reaches deal with GM, ending strike against Detroit automakers

10/30/2023: Glencore cuts 2023 nickel production guidance

10/28/2023: UAW in tentative deal to end labor strike with Stellantis but expands its strike at General Motors

10/28/2023: First Quantum's Panama unit says concerned over protests at port

10/27/2023: Panama orders halt to new mining projects as street protests grow

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.