November 14, 2023

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is down $12/mt, taking away most of yesterday’s gains.
  • Last trade was $2,218/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • An interesting phenomenon has taken place in LME aluminum warehouses recently. Last Friday, on-warrant inventories, meaning the metal is available to trade, jumped by 25,000 mt, but yesterday, on-warrant inventories dropped by 24,000. Nearly all of this occurred in South Korean warehouses. The aluminum in question could be of Russian origin, as the South Korean warehouses are a known repository of Russian metal. Nearly 79% of the aluminum in the LME warehouse system is Russian, according to the LME’s most recent Country of Origin report, out Friday. (Source: LME)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $14.5/mt, stalling after yesterday’s 1.9% rally.  
  • Last trade was $8,172.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • The turmoil for First Quantum Minerals’ Panama copper mine continues. On Monday, the company announced it was reducing mine operations due to an “illegal blockade” at its key shipping port. Throughout 2023, First Quantum’s copper mine has been subject to several protests by indigenous peoples due to environmental and other concerns. Its contract with the Panamanian government has been hotly debated, and Panama’s Supreme Court will soon decide its future. First Quantum’s copper mine is one of the largest and most promising mining projects in recent years and is responsible for about 1.5% of global production. (Source: Bloomberg, USGS)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $895/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • Weak manufacturing sectors throughout Europe continue to undermine the continent’s steel industry. Over the weekend, Tata Steel, one of the world’s largest steel producers, stated it will soon cut 800 jobs due to the region’s poor steel market. “The steel market has been in dire straits for some time…. Despite all efforts by Tata Steel to improve its market position and reduce costs, more needs to be done,” they proclaimed. (Source: Steel Times International)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

11/8/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

10/17/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

09/28/2023: Aluminum Buyers Should Hedge Alongside Chinese Importers

09/08/2023: Despite Price Slump, Hedging is Still Feasible for Steel Producers

08/25/2023: Growing Secondary Aluminum Supply Could Further Weigh on Prices

11/13/2023: Tata Steel's IJmuiden plant faces 800 job cuts

11/13/2023: Glencore to take steps towards restart of Nordenham zinc smelter -sources

11/13/2023: Goldman Sachs forecasts higher returns on commodities

11/13/2023: Iron ore defies commodity gloom amid China property hopes

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.